PRISM 3D: PlioMIP

PRISM3D Project

PRISM PlioMIP data PlioMIP results PlioMIP 2011 meeting

Introduction

General Circulation Models (GCMs) are routinely used to simulate and predict Earth’s past, present and future climate (e.g. IPCC, 2007). Although models broadly agree, significant differences exist in the detail of their predictions (e.g. Randall et al., 2007). Unfortunately, paleoclimate modeling studies often utilize only a single model, meaning the results obtained may be highly model-dependant. To combat this bias, the international Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) was initiated to coordinate and encourage the systematic study of several GCMs and to assess their ability to simulate large changes in paleoclimate (e.g. Joussaume and Taylor, 1995). In 2007 PMIP coverage was extended beyond the Last Glacial Maximum and the mid-Holocene climatic optimum to the mid-Pliocene, a time period identified by the IPCC as a potential analogue for future climate change (Jansen et al., 2007).

The mid-Pliocene warm period has provided a focus for data synthesis and paleoclimate modeling for the last two decades (e.g. Chandler et al., 1994; Sloan et al., 1996; Dowsett et al., 1994, 1999; Haywood et al., 2000). Though numerous GCM simulations of the Pliocene have been conducted, rarely has any systematic attempt been made to conduct experiments in a fashion that would make direct comparisons possible, and our view of the mid-Pliocene world is still largely based on outputs from only a few GCMs.

Recently, a pilot intercomparison using the NASA GISS and Hadley Centre GCMs, using prescribed PRISM boundary conditions, has revealed a number of important differences in the model results, raising questions regarding both the Pliocene climate and the ability of GCMs to simulate warm climates. This pilot study serves as a springboard for the larger internationally coordinated Pliocene Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP), a component of the new PMIP3 initiative. PlioMIP has multi-agency support in the U.S. and numerous participants from the international community . The project will help enable the systematic study of GCMs for a warm period in Earth history that roughly parallels climate predictions for the end of this century.

PlioMIP Modeling Groups
Group	Contact	PlioMIP Exp 1	PlioMIP Exp 2
Hadley - UK	Alan Haywood, Dan Lunt, Paul Valdes	HadAM3	HadCM3
University of New South Wales	Steven J. Phipps	CSIRO Mk3L Version 1.2	CSIRO Mk3L Version 1.2
NCAR	Bette Otto-Bliesner, Nan Rosenbloom		CCSM4
University of Massachusetts, Amhearst	Rob DeConto, Sebastian Koenig	Genesis V. 3.0
Laboratoire de Physique Atmosphérique et Planétaire (LPAP)	Alexandra Henrot	Planet Simulator version Most 15
GISS	Mark Chandler	GCMAM3, GISS Model E	GISS Model E-R
Bjerknes/Bergen	Kerim H. Nisancioglu	NorESM	NorESM
IAP/CAS	Zheng Weipeng, Zhang Zhongshi, Qing Yang	CAM3	FGOALS-g2.0, FOAM1.5
Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Instituut	Nanne Weber, Erik Tuenter	EC-Earth v.2	EC-Earth v.2
Center for Climate System Research, University of Tokyo	Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Wing Le Chan, Ryota O'ishi	MIROC 3.2 GCM	MIROC 3.2 GCM
Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research	Christian Stepanek	COSMOS 1.2.0	COSMOS 1.2.0
University of Kiel, Germany	Birgit Schneider		AOGCM KCM v1.2.2
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environment (LSCE)	Camille Contoux,Anne Jost, Gilles Ramstein	LMDZ	IPSLCM5A
University of Tsukuba	Youichi Kamae, Hiroaki Ueda	MRI-CGCM 2.3	MRI-CGCM 2.3

green = completed, yellow = working, white = committed but not started

Early in 2009 a scientific advisory panel was established to direct the PlioMIP project and to act as points of contact to provide any guidance necessary for groups interested in running PlioMIP experiments. The current composition of the PlioMIP advisory panel can be found below.

Lead (model) Alan Haywood (University of Leeds, UK)
Lead (data) Harry Dowsett (US Geological Survey, USA)
Bette Otto-Bliesner (National Center for Atmospheric Research, USA)
Mark Chandler (GISS/Columbia, New York, USA)
Aisling Dolan (Leeds University, UK)
Daniel Hill (Leeds University, UK)
Daniel Lunt (University of Bristol, UK)
Nan Rosenbloom (National Center for Atmospheric Research, USA)
Ulrich Salzmann (Northumbria University, UK)
Technical and programming support (PlioMIP boundary conditions and web site) Kevin Foley (US Geological Survey, USA)

References

Global & Planetary Change.

IPCC, (2007). Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis.

Jansen, E. et al. (2007). Palaeoclimate. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis.

Randall, D.A. et al. (2007). Climate Models and Their Evaluation. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis.

Haywood, A.M. et al. (2000). Geology 28, 1063-1066.

Dowsett, H.J. et al. (1999). USGS Open File Report 99-535.

Sloan, L.C. et al. (1996). Marine Micropaleontology 27, 51-61.

Joussaume, S. and K. E. Taylor, (1995). Proceedings of the first international AMIP scientific conference. WCRP Report, 425-430.

Chandler, M.A. et al. (1994). Global & Planetary Change 9, 197-219.

Dowsett, H.J.et al. (1994). Joint investigations of the middle Pliocene climate I: PRISM paleoenvironmental reconstructions. Global and Planetary Change 9: 169-195.

Background information information useful for PlioMIP research proposals. Supplied by Haywood and Lunt.

Planned Analyses:

PLISMIP-ANT

Leaders: Bas de Boer (1), Aisling Dolan (2)

Institute for Marine and Atmospheric research Utrecht (IMAU) Utrecht University The Netherlands
School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, UK

A short description of the analysis

Following on from the initial Pliocene Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project (PLISMIP; Dolan et al., 2012), PLISMIP-ANT will focus solely on modelling the Antarctic ice sheets (East and West Antarctica) using new hybrid ice sheet models which incorporate both a shallow-ice approximation component suitable for simulating ice that is frozen to the bedrock and a shallow-shelf approximation, which allows the flow of ice shelves to be modelled. The project will undertake new ice sheet model simulations using outputs from the PlioMIP project and address for the first time the issue of ice sheet model dependency over the whole Antarctic continent using state-of-the-art ice sheet models.

Please email Bas De Boer [b.deboer@uu.nl] or Aisling Dolan [a.m.dolan@leeds.ac.uk] if you are interested in taking part in this project.
Proposed start and completion dates
Start: October 2013
Finish: Summer 2014
A list of other interested participants

Nick Golledge, Antarctic Research Centre, Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand
Dave Pollard, Penn State University, USA
Edward Gasson, University of Massachusetts Amherst, USA

Simulating the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets in the mid-Pliocene warm period - An ice sheet model intercomparison project

Leaders: Aisling Dolan (1), Sebastian Koenig (2) and Daniel Hill (3)

School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, UK
Department of Geosciences, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, USA
British Geological Survey, Keyworth, Nottingham, UK
A short description of the analysis

The aim of this project is to test and compare the performance of existing numerical ice sheet models (ISM) under prescribed climatic forcing derived from PlioMIP Experiments 1 and 2 results. Climatologies obtained from the Global Circulation Model (GCM) experiments will be used to force the ISMs over Greenland and Antarctica. This will quantify the uncertainties introduced in existing Pliocene ice sheet reconstructions, due to both the use of a single GCM and a single ISM. Not only will this project provide new benchmarks in the simulation of ice sheets in a past warm period, but the analysis of the impact of various model uncertainties could directly inform future predictions of ice sheet and sea-level.
Proposed start and completion dates
Start: May 2010 (in line with some of Exp 1 results being submitted to PlioMIP) [Submit email with short statement of interest to koenig@geo.umass.edu, or A.M.Dolan08@leeds.ac.uk by May 1, 2010.]
Finish: May 2011
A list of other interested participants

Alan Haywood, University of Leeds, UK
Rob DeConto, University of Massachusetts Amherst, USA
Dan Lunt, University of Bristol, UK
Harry Dowsett, USGS, USA
Ayako Abe-Ouchi, The University of Tokyo, Japan
Dave Pollard, Penn State University, USA
Bas de Boer, Institute of Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht, Utrecht University, The Netherlands
Petra Langebroeck, Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Germany
André Paul, Centre for Marine Environmental Sciences and University of Bremen, Germany
Michael Schulz, Centre for Marine Environmental Sciences and University of Bremen, Germany
Aurélien Quiquet, Université Grenoble 1, France

Model intercomparison for simulated global distribution of biomes in the in the mid-Pliocene warm period

Leaders: Ulrich Salzmann (1), Alan M Haywood (2) and Daniel J Lunt (3)

School of Applied Sciences, Northumbria University, UK
School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, UK
Department of Geosciences, University of Bristol, UK
A short description of the analysis

The aim of this project is to test and compare the performance of climate model simulations under prescribed climatic forcing derived from PlioMIP Experiments 1 and 2. Climatologies obtained from the Global Circulation Model (GCM) experiments will be used to do an ensemble run with BIOME4. The outcomes will then be compared with a global palaeobotanical proxy data set for the late Pliocene (Salzmann et al. 2008) using Kappa statistics. We will conduct global and regional scale analyses to better identify the underlying causes for differences among climate models.
Proposed start and completion dates
Start: July 2010 (in line with some of Exp 1 results being submitted to PlioMIP) [Submit email with short statement of interest to ulrich.salzmann@northumbria.ac.uk by July 1, 2010.]
Finish: July 2011

Send an e-mail describing your related research or ideas for related research. Information on your analysis will be posted here. Include:

Title of analysis

Leader

A short description of the analysis (less than 100 words)

Proposed start and completion dates

A list of other interested participants

Input data for analysis are found here.
Results of PlioMIP research are found here.
Join a discussion of PRISM and PlioMIP topics on Google Groups or send the group a message.

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