USGS - science for a changing world

PRISM3D Project

The first phase of PlioMIP is completed. Please go to, and bookmark the following website for information on PlioMIP2: http://geology.er.usgs.gov/egpsc/prism/7_pliomip2.html

PRISM PlioMIP data PlioMIP results PlioMIP 2011 meeting

Introduction

   General Circulation Models (GCMs) are routinely used to simulate and predict Earth’s past, present and future climate (e.g. IPCC, 2007). Although models broadly agree, significant differences exist in the detail of their predictions (e.g. Randall et al., 2007). Unfortunately, paleoclimate modeling studies often utilize only a single model, meaning the results obtained may be highly model-dependant. To combat this bias, the international Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) was initiated to coordinate and encourage the systematic study of several GCMs and to assess their ability to simulate large changes in paleoclimate (e.g. Joussaume and Taylor, 1995). In 2007 PMIP coverage was extended beyond the Last Glacial Maximum and the mid-Holocene climatic optimum to the mid-Pliocene, a time period identified by the IPCC as a potential analogue for future climate change (Jansen et al., 2007).

   The mid-Pliocene warm period has provided a focus for data synthesis and paleoclimate modeling for the last two decades (e.g. Chandler et al., 1994; Sloan et al., 1996; Dowsett et al., 1994, 1999; Haywood et al., 2000). Though numerous GCM simulations of the Pliocene have been conducted, rarely has any systematic attempt been made to conduct experiments in a fashion that would make direct comparisons possible, and our view of the mid-Pliocene world is still largely based on outputs from only a few GCMs.

   Recently, a pilot intercomparison using the NASA GISS and Hadley Centre GCMs, using prescribed PRISM boundary conditions, has revealed a number of important differences in the model results, raising questions regarding both the Pliocene climate and the ability of GCMs to simulate warm climates. This pilot study serves as a springboard for the larger internationally coordinated Pliocene Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP), a component of the new PMIP3 initiative. PlioMIP has multi-agency support in the U.S. and numerous participants from the international community . The project will help enable the systematic study of GCMs for a warm period in Earth history that roughly parallels climate predictions for the end of this century.

PlioMIP Modeling Groups
Group Contact PlioMIP Exp 1 PlioMIP Exp 2
Hadley - UK Alan Haywood, Dan Lunt, Paul Valdes HadAM3 HadCM3
University of New South Wales Steven J. Phipps CSIRO Mk3L Version 1.2 CSIRO Mk3L Version 1.2
NCAR Bette Otto-Bliesner, Nan Rosenbloom CCSM4
University of Massachusetts, Amhearst Rob DeConto, Sebastian Koenig Genesis V. 3.0
Laboratoire de Physique Atmosphérique et Planétaire (LPAP) Alexandra Henrot Planet Simulator version Most 15
GISS Mark Chandler GCMAM3, GISS Model E GISS Model E-R
Bjerknes/Bergen Kerim H. Nisancioglu NorESM NorESM
IAP/CAS Zheng Weipeng, Zhang Zhongshi, Qing Yang CAM3 FGOALS-g2.0, FOAM1.5
Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Instituut Nanne Weber, Erik Tuenter EC-Earth v.2 EC-Earth v.2
Center for Climate System Research, University of Tokyo Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Wing Le Chan, Ryota O'ishi MIROC 3.2 GCM MIROC 3.2 GCM
Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research Christian Stepanek COSMOS 1.2.0 COSMOS 1.2.0
University of Kiel, Germany Birgit Schneider AOGCM KCM v1.2.2
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environment (LSCE) Camille Contoux,Anne Jost, Gilles Ramstein LMDZ IPSLCM5A
University of Tsukuba Youichi Kamae, Hiroaki Ueda MRI-CGCM 2.3 MRI-CGCM 2.3
green = completed, yellow = working, white = committed but not started

   Early in 2009 a scientific advisory panel was established to direct the PlioMIP project and to act as points of contact to provide any guidance necessary for groups interested in running PlioMIP experiments. The current composition of the PlioMIP advisory panel can be found below.

Lead (model) Alan Haywood (University of Leeds, UK)

Lead (data) Harry Dowsett (US Geological Survey, USA)

Bette Otto-Bliesner (National Center for Atmospheric Research, USA)

Mark Chandler (GISS/Columbia, New York, USA)

Aisling Dolan (Leeds University, UK)

Daniel Hill (Leeds University, UK)

Daniel Lunt (University of Bristol, UK)

Nan Rosenbloom (National Center for Atmospheric Research, USA)

Ulrich Salzmann (Northumbria University, UK)

Technical and programming support (PlioMIP boundary conditions and web site) Kevin Foley (US Geological Survey, USA)

References


Background information information useful for PlioMIP research proposals. Supplied by Haywood and Lunt.


Planned Analyses:

PLISMIP-ANT

Leaders: Bas de Boer (1), Aisling Dolan (2)
  1. Institute for Marine and Atmospheric research Utrecht (IMAU) Utrecht University The Netherlands
  2. School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, UK
A short description of the analysis

Following on from the initial Pliocene Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project (PLISMIP; Dolan et al., 2012), PLISMIP-ANT will focus solely on modelling the Antarctic ice sheets (East and West Antarctica) using new hybrid ice sheet models which incorporate both a shallow-ice approximation component suitable for simulating ice that is frozen to the bedrock and a shallow-shelf approximation, which allows the flow of ice shelves to be modelled. The project will undertake new ice sheet model simulations using outputs from the PlioMIP project and address for the first time the issue of ice sheet model dependency over the whole Antarctic continent using state-of-the-art ice sheet models.

Please email Bas De Boer [b.deboer@uu.nl] or Aisling Dolan [a.m.dolan@leeds.ac.uk] if you are interested in taking part in this project.

Proposed start and completion dates

Start: October 2013

Finish: Summer 2014

A list of other interested participants

Simulating the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets in the mid-Pliocene warm period - An ice sheet model intercomparison project

Leaders: Aisling Dolan (1), Sebastian Koenig (2) and Daniel Hill (3)

  1. School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, UK
  2. Department of Geosciences, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, USA
  3. British Geological Survey, Keyworth, Nottingham, UK
A short description of the analysis

The aim of this project is to test and compare the performance of existing numerical ice sheet models (ISM) under prescribed climatic forcing derived from PlioMIP Experiments 1 and 2 results. Climatologies obtained from the Global Circulation Model (GCM) experiments will be used to force the ISMs over Greenland and Antarctica. This will quantify the uncertainties introduced in existing Pliocene ice sheet reconstructions, due to both the use of a single GCM and a single ISM. Not only will this project provide new benchmarks in the simulation of ice sheets in a past warm period, but the analysis of the impact of various model uncertainties could directly inform future predictions of ice sheet and sea-level.
Proposed start and completion dates

Start: May 2010 (in line with some of Exp 1 results being submitted to PlioMIP) [Submit email with short statement of interest to koenig@geo.umass.edu, or A.M.Dolan08@leeds.ac.uk by May 1, 2010.]

Finish: May 2011

A list of other interested participants

Model intercomparison for simulated global distribution of biomes in the in the mid-Pliocene warm period

Leaders: Ulrich Salzmann (1), Alan M Haywood (2) and Daniel J Lunt (3)

  1. School of Applied Sciences, Northumbria University, UK
  2. School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, UK
  3. Department of Geosciences, University of Bristol, UK
A short description of the analysis

The aim of this project is to test and compare the performance of climate model simulations under prescribed climatic forcing derived from PlioMIP Experiments 1 and 2. Climatologies obtained from the Global Circulation Model (GCM) experiments will be used to do an ensemble run with BIOME4. The outcomes will then be compared with a global palaeobotanical proxy data set for the late Pliocene (Salzmann et al. 2008) using Kappa statistics. We will conduct global and regional scale analyses to better identify the underlying causes for differences among climate models.
Proposed start and completion dates

Start: July 2010 (in line with some of Exp 1 results being submitted to PlioMIP) [Submit email with short statement of interest to ulrich.salzmann@northumbria.ac.uk by July 1, 2010.]

Finish: July 2011


Send an e-mail describing your related research or ideas for related research. Information on your analysis will be posted here. Include:

Input data for analysis are found here.

Results of PlioMIP research are found here.
Join a discussion of PRISM and PlioMIP topics on Google Groups or send the group a message.

Accessibility FOIA Privacy Policies and Notices

Take Pride in America logo USA.gov logo U.S. Department of the Interior | U.S. Geological Survey
URL:http://geology.er.usgs.gov/eespteam/prism/prism_pliomip.html
Page Contact Information:PRISM Project members
Page Last Modified: 28 October 2013